NST Columns

Opinion: Not quite Tanjung 4 but getting close to it
30 Jan 2007
CHOW KUM HOR

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The DAP is targeting Penang again in the next general election. CHOW KUM HOR looks at the party’s early moves and assesses the strength of its challenge.

THE crowd at the DAP-organised ceramah in the Penang Chinese Town Hall on Wednesday night knew they were not at a run-of-the-mill function.

They were there not only to listen to the usual opposition views but also to see the special guest, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

It took a good 10 minutes for the adviser of Parti Keadilan Rakyat to make his way from the hall’s entrance to the stage as he shook hands with some of the 2,000-strong crowd. By then, there was only standing room in the hall.

It was, after all, the first time DAP had invited Anwar for a ceramah in Penang, his home state and one which it has set its sights on in the next general election.

As his hour-long speech drew to a close around midnight, it was Anwar’s parting remarks that summed up what the night was all about: “Tonight is a public declaration that DAP and PKR are together in Penang.”

For DAP, this was a shot in the arm for its efforts to win more seats in Penang. Specifically, Keadilan and Anwar can help DAP secure Malay votes which DAP badly needs. Although Keadilan won only one parliamentary seat in 2004, it will probably do better in the next election with Anwar on the campaign trail.

“The battle has begun. DAP and Keadilan are in the same boat sailing towards the next election,” says a state DAP leader after the ceramah.

Traditionally, the Chinese-based DAP has always made Penang, the only Chinese-majority state in the country, its frontline target.

Penang is to DAP what Kelantan is to Pas, says Universiti Sains Malaysia political scientist Prof Datuk Syed Ahmad Hussein. These are the states almost always targeted by the respective parties.

But unlike Pas, which has ruled Kelantan for close to two decades, DAP has never won control of Penang. The closest it came was in 1990 when it was two seats short of forming the state government.

Penang DAP chairman Chow Kon Yeow says: “We’ll be making a strong bid for the Penang government in the election.” But he stopped short of declaring that Tanjung 4 was in the pipeline.

DAP’s Tanjung projects refer to the party’s attempts at taking control of the state government. Three bids in 1990, 1995 and 1999 failed. But although the party now has problems elsewhere, especially in Selangor, that is not expected to affect its performance in Penang.

On the surface, many factors seem to be working in DAP’s favour. Sensing this, the party is hard at work in the state although elections are not due until July 2009.

(A Penang DAP fund-raising dinner is slated for March 24, with big names like opposition leader Lim Kit Siang and secretary-general Lim Guan Eng expected to speak.)

“The economy is one area of concern although I think we’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel now,” says Datuk Lam Wu Chong, deputy president of the Penang Chinese Town Hall, the state’s umbrella body for Chinese guilds and associations.

Economic concerns have always figured prominently in the Chinese political equation. Good times often translate into votes for Barisan Nasional (like in 1995) while bad times (such as in 1986 and 1990) hurt the coalition. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Chinese-dominated Penang.

There is also uneasiness among the Chinese over several racial-religious issues that came up over the past few months, although such disquiet is not confined to Penang folk.

In the state, there is a sense that leadership fatigue has crept in. After 17 years in power, many feel it is time for Chief Minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon to be replaced, if only for the sake of wanting a change.

It did not help that Koh is facing challenges from within his own coalition, especially Umno leaders upset with the state government’s purported neglect of Malays in the state.

While such public criticism was common in the past, the intensity of the attacks is not. Last year, Umno members humiliated Koh by staging a demonstration against him in front of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi at a function.

Meanwhile, the state DAP has invited Guan Eng to stand in Penang to boost the party’s chances, an offer he has yet to take up.

“Having Guan Eng to contest in Penang in his first election after his prison release shows DAP is again prepared to play up voters’ sentiments. This is not good for BN,” says a state Gerakan leader.

Guan Eng served 18 months in prison in 1998 for printing false news.

All these are not good news for the Gerakan-led state government. But just how bleak, nobody wants to say, considering the election is still some time away.

Gerakan secretary-general Datuk Seri Chia Kwang Chye says: “We do not know what the mood will be like during the election and what our strategies will be. But we are always ready.”

Chia defeated DAP’s Lim Kit Siang in 1999 for the Bukit Bendera parliamentary seat.

USM’s Syed Ahmad, however, is more optimistic about BN’s chances. “DAP will make inroads because BN was at its peak in 2004. Naturally, the opposition will do better in the next election.

“But as long as DAP comes across only as a Chinese party and does not break away from this racial mould, it will have limited appeal.”

Only about one-third of the 40 seats in the state assembly are predominantly Chinese. DAP often fares badly in mixed constituencies.

It knows it has to reach out to a larger segment of the electorate other than its traditional urban Chinese bloc if the party harbours any hope of coming into power. This explains why the party has been engaging Keadilan, like when it invited Anwar for the ceramah on Wednesday.

Although multi-racial, Keadilan is predominantly Malay and DAP is hopeful that having Anwar on its side would make it easier for DAP to fish for Malay votes.

But one thing still stands in the way of this partnership. DAP chairman Karpal Singh says: “We do not want to be in the invidious position of supporting PKR while PKR co-operates with Pas.”

DAP is still haunted by one of its most devastating electoral defeats ever, when it joined forces with Pas in 1999 under the Opposition Alliance. Then, the Chinese, spooked by Pas’ Islamic state plans, ditched the DAP in droves. Keadilan maintains good ties with DAP and Pas.

At this point, Chow says DAP will focus on co-operating with Keadilan in Penang while the issue of an electoral pact will be put on the backburner.

At the very least, he adds, DAP wants to achieve an electoral understanding with Keadilan to avoid overlapping contest of seats.

In 2004, there was overlapping contest in three state and one parliamentary seats, all of which Barisan Nasional won, partly due to split opposition votes.

Syed Ahmad says DAP must present a credible alternative to the government it hopes to topple in the election.

“So far, DAP has not come up with a line-up to match the incumbent’s. The government may not be perfect but it is one Penangites are familiar with.”

With election drawing closer and stiff competition expected in Penang, he adds that Barisan Nasional and DAP should waste no time tying up loose ends. This will be a race nobody wants to lose.
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