The Penang-based Guangming Daily has been very political nowadays. They have been organizing opinion polls, holding readers’ forum and coming up with many scoop stories on Penang politics as a run up to the general election. They have been many speculative pieces on the movement of Chief Minister Dr Koh Tsu Koon. I think Gerakan leaders are not very comfortable with all the focus on the possible replacement as CM after the election. Below is another column piece by a veteran columnist on whether Tsu Koon will contest in Tanjong. I am giving a (not-perfect) translation for the benefits of readers of this blog.

Tsu Koon to wrest Tanjong back?

Koh Tsu Koon is expected to contest for a Parliament seat in the next general election and secure a Cabinet post. Will he be contesting in Tanjong, a seat that he lost to DAP 21 years ago?

Tsu Koon may lead the Gerakan to wrest back this Opposition stronghold and win a handsome battle for Barisan Nasional. Tsu Koon must personally lead the charge to win back this Chinese-majority seat and this will be a booster to his political career.

To win back Tanjong remains a major electoral strategy for the Gerakan. The prospect of Tsu Koon going for Tanjong remains a speculation. It is believed the party has not discussed this possibility yet.

According to press reports, the Gerakan central leadership has proposed that Tsu Koon move to a safe Parliament seat. Either he can move over to Bruas in Perak (Keng Yaik’s seat) or Simpang Renggam in Johor (presently held by former party deput president, Kerk Choo Teng).

Actually, there is nothing wrong in moving to another state as part of a party’s strategy. It is allowed by our election laws.

However, Opposition candidates who move away from their State are often labeled a political escapee. If Tsu Koon were to move out of Penang, then he would be a victim of their own propaganda. It would be better to contest in a seemingly most dangerous but may turn out to be the safest seat in Tanjong.

Since the first general election in 1959, Tanjong has remained the same, no name change or delineation of its boundary. It is a traditional Chinese-majority seat. For a while, it was Tsu Koon’s political base and the centre of Chinese political power.

Since 1959, the seat was held by DAP for six terms. The Labour Party, UDP and Gerakan (when it was in the Opposition) won the seat for a term each. The Gerakan won the seat twice under the BN banner. (Lim Chong Eu was a three-term Tanjong MP, first as an opposition UDP ticket, the second under opposition Gerakan ticket and finally under the BN ticket in 1974.)

Based on the above electoral history, Tanjong is definitely a difficult “black” seat for the ruling party. It would be a great political risk for Tsu Koon. If he loses, that would spell the end of his political career.

But following changes in the political environment, the most difficult seat may turn out to be the safest. This may be tested in the coming general election.

In the past three elections, Tsu Koon led the Penang BN to glorious victories. The opposition also suffered humiliating defeats. Not only did Gerakan won the traditional opposition seats in Bukit Bendera and Jelutong, even DAP strongmen Kit Siang and Karpal Singh were defeated. Now is the time to wrest back Tanjong.

Actually the ruling party has been able to win over opposition seats the last few elections and turned them into safe seats. BN Chinese leaders are also able to win repeatedly in such seats.

Although the DAP is still able to hold on to Tanjong, its winning majorities has declined over the years. Furthermore, the three State seats within Tanjong are presently held by the MCA and Gerakan.

Looking back, the less experienced Tsu Koon was unable to stop DAP strongman Kit Siang from winning the Tanjong seat in 1986 election.

Following the defeats suffered by the opposition, the advantage they have in Tanjong is waning. The DAP also suffer another blow when there is an outflow of Chinese voters from Tanjong. That is why the Gerakan is feeling more confident now. They have set up an election taskforce, preparing a development master plan and even named and introduced six potential candidates for the seat. They are determined to make Tanjong theirs in the coming election.

If Tsu Koon, who is now riding high in popularity and served 17 years as Chief Minister, were to volunteer to contest in Tanjong, it would increase their winning prospect.

If Tsu Koon were to emulate Lee San Choon’s feat (by contesting and defeating DAP strongman Dr Chen Man Hin in Seremban in 1982) by winning the Tanjong seat, he would be able to show BN that he could win in a Chinese-majority seat. This would surely increase Tsu Koon’s stature in Gerakan and the BN.

If Chia Kwang Chye and Lee Kah Choon can win Bukit Bendera and Jelutong, there should not be a problem for Tsu Koon to win back Tanjong.

Tsu Koon scored an impressive victory when he first contested in Tanjong. He should come to win again in Tanjong to pave the way to another impressive beginning in Federal politics.